To your point: Peco and I just published "Welcome to the Analog Renaissance: The Future is Trust".
We are facing a major crisis of trust because so much of our work and creativity will be the product of AI. But we have a choice, we can start to build outposts of human trust in the digital wilderness. At School of the Unconformed we are introducing a analog-digtial hybrid model as a way to establish trust between writers and readers. For practical starting points see:
Also, seems we've been thinking along the same lines: in Sept 2024 my husband Peco and I discussed the impending change to our knowledge system in "The Flavors of Faux History: Preparing for the Collapse of Knowledge". As an anitdote we compiled an extensive "booklegging for history" list based on the recommendations of Substack writers and readers we collected. I've lifted the paywall for those who are interested :)https://schooloftheunconformed.substack.com/p/the-flavors-of-faux-history-preparing
I noticed a shift in the business world about twenty years ago, when client acquisition became all about trust. Performance, fees, extras all became second to trust.
I will add to Paul Hesse’s observation: These points apply almost exclusively to America. The opposite - upticks in education, reading, thinking, understanding, public discourse, science - can be observed today on clear display in Canada and China per Paul’s note, and as well in Taiwan, Iceland, Finland, Denmark, New Zealand, Mongolia, Ecuador, Slovenia, Norway, Portugal, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic
Well, my kids went through the public school system in Norway, and later did some university study in the US, and I can tell you the the so-called uptick in education, reading etc in Norway is closer to mixed to downticks. Reading levels of young males decline every year, we're finally going back to books in school after losing our minds over digital learning, but the elephant in the room remains the addiction to tech in all forms.
In any case, here's a good example of the west: When one of my kids was in 9th grade years ago, they thought they were doing advanced math. At an open PTA meeting a woman from China stood up and asked the board: why are 9th graders learning math we learn in China in 3rd grade?
To be fair, a laptop or a tablet is vastly easier to carry around and reference than ten different textbooks. The problem is more related to the open internet.
I am a teacher in Taiwan and I have had the opposite experience. Maybe on the surface it looks like these things are growing, but innreality, Taiwan is very committed to the technological bureaucracy. Kids are in schools from 7am until 7pm, or later. They're not reading or thinking, they're learning to memorize and to be good cogs in the system, which is even more so than in America, a top down system. From my perspective, many other countries are going through these same trends, they're just happening slower and, perhaps, because these countries can see what's happening in America, with less disruption.
7am until 7pm? Cripes, you're running a chain gang, that's worse than South Korea.
Do these people not realise that Finnland gets nearly identical PISA scores with about half as many hours in the school system? Why do parents inflict this on their children?
I agree that much (thought not all) of Ted's points relate to American decline rather than anything global. Having said that, the impact of the Silicon Valley companies is global (excepting China), and everyone is online which is no doubt fuelling loneliness and dissatisfaction everywhere. That's something we all need to push back on.
Orville Schell has written convincingly on the parallels between Trump and Mao. The anti-expert and anti-science etc bent of MAGA may be more about Trump trying to consolidate power through destroying institutions and less about inherent problems in the institutions.
I think maybe that is an example of reversing the disease and the symptom. The system has become weak as Ted describes, and Trump/MAGA are able to exploit that weakness. If the system were healthier Trump wouldn't be there in the first place. Trump is symptomatic of many things, not a cause in and of himself.
In all kindness, may I ask if it was any different prior to January 2025? I think it’s disingenuous to fall back on the “Orange Man bad” argument regarding this issue.
I understand your point, but since January 2025, and for the first time in US history, the country will experience a 'brain drain' to Europe of its scientists and innovators. The EU has already put up $500 million in start-up funds to accelerate the process, and there will be much more in the future.
The knowledge system was weakened even during the 2008 campaign. MAGA was already there. Remember the emergence of Sarah Palin, and that woman who said Obama was suspect because he was a Muslim before McCain shut her down. I'm doing precisely the opposite of the "Orange Man bad" argument. (Though he is very, very bad.)
Regarding Trump as a figurehead, this is also partly TDS. Whatever you think of him, without Trump, we would be in a uniparty downward spiral of DEI, woke academia, censorship, intersectionalism, growing unfunded spending and so on. He is an unlikely hero needed for the current moment; whether he will succeed against all the intense resistance to every single thing is unclear, but no one else would dare to try hard enough.
You can take Leibniz's view if you wish: we live in the best possible world where everything is a necessary evil. Yet, recognition is due
I don't think Trump is doing the organizing, I think the situation is more like the 1st Triumvirate of Rome, enemies turned allies out of necessity. Which will only last as long as it is convenient.
I think Trump was more of a figurehead of the zionist jews (as opposed to the globalist jews), but I'm not sure if that is true any more. I think Trump is now more of a Thermidorean figure (French Rev faction trying to back off the fanatics before total ruin happens.) He is opening a lot of peoples' eyes to just how terrible things are, and giving people hope that they can get better.
I don't think things will get better, at least not before they get a whole lot worse first.
You may be optimistic. Here in New Zealand, we are just traipsing sheepishly along behind the rest of the western world. All of Ted's trends prevail here, to varying degrees.
In the Canada I live in, people aren’t as divided, but many, including me, are very suspicious of authorities. What the last election showed is that the Boomers are the only generation with a majority who still supports the status quo. The younger generations have far less faith in the expert class.
It is unfettered unrepentant and unhinged capitalism that is to blame.
More is better, reduce taxes for the super rich, make a buck. There is no balance or restraint anymore. No desire for sustained service to the customer. It's only about the shareholders.
I’m not really following this point. U.S. universities are world leaders in cutting edge science and research. God help us all if they start crumbling. People commented on lowered standards in their respective countries. I’ve heard/seen standards slide in Canada, UK and France. In Tokyo, at some schools, you are required to maintain an iPad for schooling.
I'm concerned that instead of the arts and humanities assuming a larger role, religion will fill in the gaps…this is one of the worst potential horrors.
Christianity offers absolutely the most honest appraisal of the human condition ever devised, and the best and highest standards of morality. It is the only philosophy or religion which understands both good and evil, and the only one to provide both an unyielding standard and a path to redemption. You will rarely go wrong hiring a Biblically-sound Christian. They work for a higher boss.
The problem with "highest standards of morality" is that they are rarely followed especially by those who proclaim them. In the current climate they are also seen as weakness. As for hiring "Biblically-sound Christian(s)" they suffer from lack of doubt. And that is dangerous.
I think you need to surround yourself with apostolic Christians, like Orthodox or Catholics and less the prosperity gospel Christians.
While we're all sinners and we strive to sin less the apostolic traditions have a long history of martyrdom. That is the fullest form of a Christian following their morality to the grave.
I'm sorry, but as a lifelong Christian, I seriously dispute the assertion that we do not suffer doubt. You must not have had close relationships with many Christians. We are human and our faith is a conscious choice, often in the face of confusion, and throughout history Christians have undertaken great and careful study and examination of their beliefs, and still (Incredibly! What a shock!) decided that Christianity is the most truthful and best path.
Sending you to 1Timothy 6:17-19 where instructions were given to Timothy from Apostle Paul regarding not placing hope on riches but on God with emphasis on working at good and be rich in fine works so that we may get a hold on the real life.
This system of things is collapsing as predicted by Jesus and reinforced by Apostle John in Revelation is coming rapidly to fruitition.
Events will all play out with government in conflict with religion.
From a science, tech, art and historical perspective it will be an interesting ride.
It also instills a lot of confidence and superiority in some people, to the point that they have absolute certainty that what they do is always good and in god's graces, usually completely ignoring the actual humans that sit in front of them.
Whether Christianity makes people better or not is as varied as the people that follow it.
Well that fits in with Ted's prediction that Romanticism is making a comeback. And I'm good with that. The youngs flocking to religion are looking for a sense of community and that's certainly an improvement over the isolation of technology.
Humanities have long been intertwined with religion. You cannot explore the human experience without some level of spirituality. How did become this way? Why are these greats themes of humanity - grief, guilt, love, joy, morality - so universal across millenia and cultures?
Science will want to answer that (and other related questions) biologically, and the humanities will want to answer that spiritually. Both ways have value.
I draw a sharp distinction between spirituality and religion, the latter being a sociopolitical power structure that pretends to address the former.
I also suspect that much (though I will not say all) that is commonly thought of as spiritual is actually an emergent property of our physical nature. By bracketing the "spiritual" off from the "biological" we risk damaging our understanding of both.
I think this is a self-defeating claim. You want spirituality apart from its natural embodiment in religion, but then want to say that spirituality is also closely connected to the physical world. Can't you see that those who follow religion are seeking exactly this, a spirituality that acknowledges and nourishes their embodied existence, not merely one that treats them as a soul-receptical? Religious ceremony and rite are one of the greatest expressions of this longing. And a study of history will also reveal that many religious people throughout history (including today) have held to their beliefs and rites in the face of a completely disenfranchising socio-political structure. See: communism in every country it has ever existed; Ancient Rome; Christians in any majority Muslim country today.
Interesting. Now, Islam is also a religion. As is Hinduism, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, and many, many other traditions of ritual and belief. Are not Muslims in muslim-majority countries also keeping their faith?
Of course they are. Not necessarily a true faith, but a faith all the same. Religion need not *necessarily* be opposed/disenfranchised in order to be true. However, if religion can be practiced even in the midst of complete opposition, then it is more than sociopolitical power.
The tendency to view all things, especially religion, as a form of power, is Marxist in origin. And it makes for shallow philosophy. Existence is not merely a struggle for power, and religion is not merely a grasping for power. We must look deeper into human nature for our meaning. Yes, spirituality is an aspect of that, but true and sincere spirituality leads to an embrace of religion, since our spiritual nature as humans is not isolated, but communal, and not merely cognitive, but embodied.
You need to make a distinction. In Christianity the High Church is thoroughly corrupted by Woke, with a succession of popes, archbishops, bishops etc having proved worldly, venal and political. The sense of crisis is causing growth in Christianity, lots of new people joining, only you won't see it in the cathedrals and trendy inner-city churches, only in small, traditional, family-oriented churches. In a way, this mirrors what Ted has written.
There's also the distinction between institutional religion and spirituality. The first is doomed. The second, however, may be entering a renaissance.
The latin community is different. They seem to have better values all around when it comes to faith and family! And work..
I'm talking rural america.. 10 churches in every village and 10 people in each.. or less.. social fabric has torn. I see a lot of judgment, gossip, condemnation all around very little "community". More a feeling of exclusivity and "do as I say" instead of real love and tolerance... holy rollers won't make it... and it's showing.
This country is in spiritual darkness ... church has failed.
Not really. Young people and those with large families are flocking in droves to the traditional Latin Mass. And the more beautiful and ornate the awe-inspiring cathedral the better. It is verified and noticed all over. Clowns in Charlotte are the dying liberal “institution.”
You cannot have humanities and arts without religion. These things are all part of what makes us human. My guess is that you actually fear religion being wielded by the powers that be, as some kind of inquisitorial weapon. But just like the arts and humanities, religion will fill in the "gaps" left by technology (or, rather, become the new foundation) not by enforcement at government level, but through the authentic and natural growth of communities and people towards the Good, True, and Beautiful. Arts and humanities uninformed by religion and moral conviction will go just as rotten as technology.
I've seen exactly what you mention; but I feel differently about the implications.
I am a physician from the last generation without chatGPT. I'm trained by reading textbooks, writing notes, solving online question banks, and using the internet to stay up to date. You can call it a hybrid model of education, between old-fashioned and new.
The 'new' method of learning is a total collapse into having 'trusted sources' feed the evidence to you. No more finding your own answers, No more criticism, no more weighing the evidence on the merits. Just ask ChatGPT. Add to that the increasing role of untrained APPs in administering medicine; and I feel that my future will be the only literate one in a sea of illiteracy. Like a medieval priest.
I feel those that subscribe to the older methods of knowledge acquisition will turn out just fine.
I'm a physician from the same generation as you. I also think we learn from rounding (discussing hospitalized patients' progress with other professionals), and seeing and learning from patients themselves. These both take time.
Now rounding is focused on how soon can this patient be discharged. Clinic visits are 10-15 minutes regardless of the problems encountered. Insurance companies and the people who pay their premiums do not value time. They value algorithms.
I’m a physician too and feel strongly that our missteps as a profession have contributed greatly to the collapse in public trust of institutions. We’ve had one medical scandal after another, accelerating over the decades until a crescendo is reached in the opiate epidemic. Before that one can properly be accounted for, we have the failures of the pandemic and, the piece de resistance, pediatric gender medicine. We’ve gone full on Mengele with that last one and do not seem to be able to put the breaks on. Something has been very wrong in medicine for a while now - some of it is financial opportunism certainly but some is just straight up intolerance of dissent. We’ve gotten alarmingly censorious in the last 10 years, to the detriment of our own reputations.
"We’ve had one medical scandal after another, accelerating over the decades until a crescendo is reached in the opiate epidemic." That's funny, wasn't there a "pandemic" since then, which represented the culmination of all these trends of abuse of trust? You can talk about it now, ARG, even Ted has mentioned it this time. Soon everyone will be able to talk about it without scandalising polite society!
The problem is many of the written text are not only years behind, but over censured and editorialized. I would never ask ChatGPT to interpret anything for me but we have to be trained to look at raw data critically. I assume you have been around long enough to see so much medical ‘dogma’ fall by the wayside. But not before we have invested all those dollars and resources and lives to be the most cutting edge , up-to-date practitioners.
It's ridiculous how the whole field of cardiology has decided to abandon thinking and follow whatever is 'recommended'; despite all the evidence contrary.
Cardiology is a repeat offender. Anti-Arrhythmics to suppress PVCs, aspirin for all, aggressive stenting, calcium score.... It's ridiculous.
All this money and research and new drugs, for literally decades. And what remains the number one killer of Americans, Ischemic heart disease. Still. As if we are running in place
It gets better. HF mortality actually reversed trend and is back at 1990s level. Can’t possibly have anything to do with APPs/lazy cardiologists applying GDMT to all patients blindly without examining them + homeopathic doses of drugs because Entresto causes more hypotension for no gain. No siree.
I shouldn’t lump calcium score with the other stuff; an honest representation is that it’s still an open debate AND there’s still a variety of approaches where some cardiologists swear by it and some cardiologists hate it. Honestly; that’s an ideal way to approach something while the question is still open.
But as the second link shows, it is quickly closing as a good test. My main hang-up is; are we proving such an approach meaningfully improves survival? If not, then we’re medicalizing people earlier and exposing them to the risk of doctors. The evidence for calcium scores still is not solid enough to justify medicalizing so many people earlier.
AI development right now seems to be a breakneck race between the acquisition of competence by AI models themselves, aspirationally ending with AGI, and the equally rapid demolition of competence in younger generations of humanity.
Which means there won't be much of a backup plan. I am furious with the people making this gamble.
I am 1000% convinced there will be no ‘AGI’ in medicine. I agree with the other side of your gamble and I think that’s the likeliest outcome.
The other option is do what Ted says and reject this Tower of Babel tech outright; before we are all dispersed into millions of languages.
Why am I convinced AGI is no threat to medicine? I could write a tome, but I’ll content myself with this: 80% of evidence appraisal is cynicism. Before I start reading a paper I need to reliably answer: ‘Why are the authors lying to me? How are they lying to me? Is this still good despite the lie?’
Notice I didn’t ask if they’re lying to me; the answer is always yes. Read through all the comments under mine and you’ll see how the physicians in here continually lament being lied to.
An AGI even in the utopian form they envision will never be able to do this. It will fall to entrenched interests like official guidelines, government bodies, and extremely famous journals did. In the blink of an eye too.
Well... an AGI is by definition capable of anything humans can do, including cynicism. It could get hoodwinked, sure, but it would eventually learn from the experience.
As long as there are instructions/prompts it has to take into account; it is not capable of the one thing that sets humanity apart from all of Creation: Free Will.
Big Pharma won’t even need to bribe legions of doctors or congressmen anymore. As simple as prompt engineering or poisoning the training data set. They are actually already hard at work doing that; see NEJM’s partnership with OpenEvidence. (The clinical AI tool prefers NEJM papers above others even when it makes no sense)
Well... setting aside the debate about free will, I'll agree there are tensions between AI being 'accountable' (i.e, enslaved) to human supervisors and also performing with superhuman rigour.
What's sad is that in Canada our healthcare is in such rough shape that I pray my physician uses ChatGPT or even Google. Oftentimes those two sources are superior to our physicians.
Canada is purely ‘you get what you pay for’. Have a young friend who had to wait 10 days for emergency surgery there that would be done almost immediately in the US.
US is quickly on that path though, thanks to the ACA and corruption
Yeah the US is not much better. Where there is the potential for grift, we get grift. Whether it's a private or public system. I hope that the US and Canadian models don't exhaust the available options because we're all effed if that's so.
A very smart friend of mine told me grift only exists where there’s a shortage; and it stuck with me. He spent his formative years in a collapsing USSR so the insights help
Technology is like fire. A good servant but a poor master. We have run smack dab into the limitations of technology, and it is us. My hope is that we reclaim spirituality (not sectarian dogma) as a central part of how we organize society and live our lives. The wider reality I speak about starts with acknowledging all of self--the emotional and spiritual [parts of our being along with the physical and mental.
...and that the humans are flawed and must acknowledge and forcibly mitigate their innate absence of compunction; the ease to which they will lie, cheat and steal; and their evangelized justifications to defeat moral and ethical behavior.
I would not use the same terms as you do. But then I regard self-judgment as the ultimate origin of that which you call lack of compunction. We lie, cheat, steal, and murder because we are scared. We are scared because we have lost our inner connection to our Divine source, however we imagine it. Thus we feel this world is cold and uncaring, and that our Creator is either dead or doesn't give a damn. And what we feel (about ourselves) is what we live. More compassion, maybe? Do not conflate compassion with weakness. Only the strongest allow themselves empathy and compassion for others' flaws and weaknesses--and their own.
No surprises (I have sources), but solutions? I can only think of 2 (and I have been thinking for a while now): Either take your valuables and run to the most isolated spot possible or decide to work on your inner resources. Cultivate deep peace, love, and conciousness in house. Create solid community. Whatever you do though, it is time to pull our heads out from under and be physically, mentally, and emotionally prepared as best we can. The signs are gradual. They are intended to be. But the impact is full force. Because as Ted says, when the NY Times headlines it, 'Buddha' will be off and running at full speed.
It reminds me way back when with the sudden appearance of the Buzz word "DIGITAL" At the time time it was just a Lazy / Cheap marketing word that at first - meant NOTHING. Suddenly it was everywhere all at once - Digital this ,Digital that ... "Oh ,you've GOT to have it - NOW cause it's DIGITAL ! Really ? Sorry - NOT.
It was the KOOL thing to say when it was empty & meaningless. Just a Marketing Ploy.
The New thing you speak of however is now Real & starting to wreak actual Havoc on the Land of the Living. The Huge Changes you speak of most likely Won't have a good outcome for most of us.
I really Feel for you younger ones out there who will have to live with & deal with the Largest SCAM ever perpetrated on the Human Race
The younger ones will live with this mess but not sure they are capable of dealing with it as their heads are fully immersed in their phones. I guess some exceptions will deal with it and find a way thru the mess but not hopeful
Man they said the exact same shit when i was a kid. Its ALWAYS the next generation thats going to have to deal with "these" problems. And theyll manage, one way or the other. And fuck up a bunch of shit and make other problems for their kids kids. And so it goes
I think there's more truth than fiction in this, but it doesn't do enough to highlight how bad actors across all of these sectors set these dynamics up and exploit them for their own gain.
There are plenty of real-deal experts across many subjects but when there's money to be made they are shoved aside. The problem, then, isn't really the "expert" but the context within which they exist. Their "bosses" don't want to listen to them because they say things like "slow down" and "are you sure?" And the public doesn't want to listen to them because they're "experts" (aka elite, "out of touch" etc.).
Compounding the problem is the rise of celebrity scientists. Their fame may start in their expertise, but too often many begin to expound in areas well beyond their training and are taken more seriously there than is deserved. Linus Pauling and Neil DeGrasse Tyson are two examples.
There's a lot of money to be made in the attention economy by being a celebrity scientist these days, and it pains me to think that a nontrivial number of people in doctorate programs likely hope to make their mark there, rather than contributing actual knowledge and expertise to their field.
Absolutely! Another great point. Yet more bad actors ruining science and knowledge. Making matters even worse is that some universities actually incentivize and reward this pop science BS. It's just charlatans all the way down.
Get the record players going, enjoy the music in a way that they can't be nosy about, sit on your porch, memorize some parts of the Sacred Scriptures, Plant gardens of flowers and vegetables and share both with neighbors or the needy. Observe the sabbath and Lord's Day again even if you don't quite feel like it. The things that protect us, we must tend to.
Still making our garden larger. Started sharing a table full of free books outside - they're going like hotcakes! Don't use a smart phone. We do have a record player but also a CD player. Mixed bag but very fulfilling to do more reading, enjoying meals together, and visiting with the neighbors who walk by to pick up books! Loving life!
It's okay to use a CD player to listen to music. It's also okay to listen to mp3 files, and stream. The nostalgia for the record player is crazy, a fad of sorts. Most people have neither the technology (you know, a turntable or record player and a decent system to listen on. I do, but I rarely listen to records) or the records or the time to fiddle with that.
It's great that some people can do those things you're doing, but most can't or won't. Life is great if you have the ability to do things at leisure, but imagine if you had no money, a lousy job, or no "access" to health care. (By God, that evasive lying word "access" in that context drives me crazy.)
I appreciate the points you are making. Here's some background: At 78, I am now partially retired. We are still renters (45 years in this place). I earned minimum wage most of my 55+ years of working life. Gave up our car @ 25 years ago for both financial and environmental reasons, so now I ride the bus. I have had turntables most of that time. My husband's band put out their first LP in 1979 and it was just released by a company as a "collectible LP," because collectors want the old analog sound and that's why the turntable has made a comeback. I still listen to albums I purchased in the 60's and 70's. I also listen to CDs I purchased over the years. I don't use a smart phone - I use an old laptop. I can't believe how expensive smart phones are - I'm surprised anyone can afford them! I have always had access to health care if I could pay for it, and then I began receiving SS and got Medicare. I am fortunate since I don't get sick. Yes, I can now do some things at leisure because I have some extra time. I literally used to work up to 15 hours a day, but I can't do that any more due to physical changes, so I don't walk nor lift weight like I could years ago. Life changes. I roll with the punches, as they say. You are correct when you say not everyone can afford leisure time. Those of us who donate to different groups are well aware of the poverty in our country (and overseas) so we try to do what we can to help. Again I say - Loving life!
You've always had "access" to health care if you could pay for it? That means if you can't afford it, you don't get it. "Access" is irrelevant. I have "access" to a Lamborgini dealership about 20 miles from where I live; I can go in and look at the cars, touch them, but will never be able to afford them. Same too for about thirty million US citizens. Add in the people with bad insurance (it's great insurance as long as you never make a claim), and what do we have? A country in very serious moral trouble.
That just involves US citizens abominably served by a government in thrall to Finance Capital, but factor in the moral and criminal catastrophe of the Gaza genocide (plain as day, irrefutable, outrageous, ongoing, and well-documernted beyond dispute), and what do we have here? A culture in total failure on all fronts. I'm recently retired, and was fortunate to get a good job about 12 years ago, but I'm one of the lucky ones. Like you in some respects.
I don't really want to derail the conversation, but could you explain to me how the Gaza Genocide is "irrefutable"? The numbers just don't add up for me.
I think you're straw-manning the person you're arguing with. He was giving beautiful examples of human activities-perhaps even the best examples of them. Just because he is promoting using a record player does not mean he is being exclusive of all other human activities. Try to understand the heart of what he is saying, not just the words.
You seem to have misunderstood what I was criticizing. How and where did I claim he was being exclusive of "all other human activities"(!) by his saying to get out the record player? Ironically, I did indeed get right to the heart of what he was saying, which was a bundle of cliches.
Thanks, but I dont feel any great need to "observe the sabbath" or "the Lord's day" (!). I just dont feel like it. That's like thinking putting "prayer back in schools" will get things on the right track. And, "get the record players going?" Memorize some lines from the "Sacred Scriptures?" Why? Your prescriptions sound like pure nostalgia for a past devoid of critical thinking, something in very short supply in this Great Land.
Use your memory, use technologies that aren't spied upon even though they are older, at least they don't emit the horrid light of this. Seek an inculcated practice of some begrudgement of electronics. Not sure why you think my "prescriptions" are nostalgic particularly for a past that was devoid of critical thinking. I think there is far less critical thinking now than when we had our turntables on and listened to the readings of sacred texts that proposed a morality with which to wrestle.
The idea that Christianity and critical thinking are mutually exclusive makes me wonder what weird Christianity do you have out West or what insane propaganda did you listen to.
A lot of people know which direction to walk, but not the exact destination. I have attempted to boil down what religion offered (specifically Christianity) that undergirded the liberal experiment that gave rise to so much of the wealth and quality of life that the western world enjoyed. It's very simple: love. Not as an emotion or flowery platitude, but as what it is in the Bible: self-sacrifice for the good of another. This is the force that protected our freedoms from disintegration. Freedom is at once our greatest gift but most exploitable weakness. Mary freedom to nihilism, and suddenly being a free-rider is rational, doing that underhanded thing to get ahead is rational.
Love, as a commitment to self-sacrifice for the good of another, is the direction. While traditions may help us to remember that, it's not the traditions themselves that are doing the good work. A lot of people know the direction but not the exact destination.
Walker Percy quotes Romano Guardini (from The End of the Modern World) at the beginning of his novel, The Last Gentleman: “We know now that the modern world is coming to an end … at the same time, the unbeliever will emerge from the fogs of secularism. He will cease to reap benefit from the values and forces developed by the very Revelation he denies … Loneliness in faith will be terrible. Love will disappear from the face of the public world, but the more precious will be that love which flows from one lonely person to another … the world to come will be filled with animosity and danger, but it will be a world open and clean.”
I don't know if it actually happened or not (irony) but in Tom Hanks' cable series "From The Earth To The Moon," I seem to recall that some of the astronauts were given literature lessons and took poetry books, the better to describe their experiences in space. They knew science and beauty needed each other.
Science writer Fritjof Capra said that Leonardo's failure to publish his notebooks in his lifetime dealt a major blow to both science and art. It took 200 years for the world to get a good look at his genius, and by then science had gone one way and art another. Now we desperately need to heal the rift between the left brain and right brain, the rational and spiritual, the logical and magical. Until then, we can expect to live "not in a prison, but in a lunatic asylum," as Carl Jung predicted. Are we there yet?
I am a 78-year-old retired male computer programmer who lives in California.
Your emails present some ideas that appear to be very interesting. Besides being a musician who has often played jazz guitar in public, I worked for twenty years as a computer programmer and analyst for a medical insurance company. At that time many of us were aware that science was not the only source of wisdom, but it had done so much for us. One example involved the development of computing machines and some really amazing software. Home computers were already very popular, software companies had become extremely successful, cell phones were becoming much more useful, and AI was still mostly machine learning. Now most people appear to do the majority of their research and / or make most of their connections with new knowledge through their cell phones.
Many modern problems involve the fact that it has become difficult to trust the veracity of the vast sea of virtual information that is currently washing the sand from under our feet.
Nevertheless, many of us do seem to be becoming more directly involved with a side of human awareness that does not primarily depend upon logic and analysis. In other words instead of “I think, therefore I am”, many of us are are aware that a more profound way of being involves “I am, therefore I think.” Most of us confront of this alternate side of human awareness when we have a new and profound or “ah-ha” experience. Ultimately, this alternate side of being human can lead some of us to Unity Consciousness.
Timely and helpful although these U.S.-driven trends create differential opportunities for other countries. And since you cite the Renaissance, I'm looking forward to reading this; https://www.adapalmer.com/publication/inventing-the-renaissance/ "In Inventing the Renaissance, acclaimed historian Ada Palmer provides a fresh perspective on what makes this epoch so captivating. Her witty and irreverent journey through the fantasies historians have constructed about the period show how its legend derives more from later centuries’ mythmaking than from the often-grim reality of the period itself. " To mis-quote Barth, 'history is only the first rough draft of history'.
I think this heralds not just a backlash, but a collapse into a quasi- (or complete) dark age.
Let's say we have a society that is healthily staffed with experts. Part of their function in any given society is selection and transmission of important and useful knowledge - whether government, education, blue-collar, or random philosophers.
In any given point, humanity generates an immense amount of knowledge, and these experts function as noise filters - trying to find the best and worthiest knowledge to pass along. Experts here is a broad and diffuse category, including car mechanics, artists, philosopers, teachers, scientists of various stripes, etc.
(In a way, the same was supposed to be the function of the scientific method - an attempt for a scientist to, as much as possible, filter out noise, irrelevancies, etc. and get to the heart of a matter in a way that allowed other scientists to replicate (or not) the outcomes, observations, etc...)
This works, in any given society, so long as the experts themselves are truly self-policing - truly willing to call out non-experts in their midst for unbiased reasons. However, along the recent way, elite experts decided that the only ones excluded from their midst would be those with whom they politically disagreed or those whose investigations and outcomes conflicted with a certain set of assumptions and beliefs. In short, the search for Truth was abandoned by gatekeepers, and the search for "pronoun Truth" (my truth, their truth, your truth, etc) was on. Bulverism in action - "A rhetorical fallacy in which a speaker assumes that their opponent's argument is wrong, and instead of disproving it, condescendingly explains why their opponent would have come to that conclusion."
And thus, experts failed in their functions, both of gatekeeping and of selection and transmission of good knowledge. Once these fail, necessary knowledge MUST be lost. It is not lost through burning books or other violent destruction - it is lost because those that have it can find nobody to listen to it or carry it on, and those that do not have it...cannot be aware of what is lost.
Eventually, things will break down, from simple to complex, and the world will suddenly realize that nobody is left to fix them, because some critical knowledge of a particular widget isn't there. This will continue in a chaotic spiral.
Read the recent FP post by Tyler Cowen called "Everyone's Using AI to Cheat," wherein he applauds students who use AI and professors who use AI to grade. Does this strike nobody as odd, wherein AI-generated classwork and homework is graded and corrected by AI-generated professor comments? Where is the brain in all this?
I have absolutely zero faith in AI. It is trained on what humans have written, which showcases all of our faults and tendencies. Is it any wonder that it produces hallucinations, we humans are known to lie and cheat, why not AI. We make up things, not unlike AI making up code, so that it cannot be turned off. We are entrusting a technology to be better than us, when it is trained on and by us. That does not make any sense, to me.
Back in the 1400's, maybe 1500's, the greatest Islamic metaphysician and the greatest Islamic promoter of reason as a way forward, met. The result of that meeting was the metaphysician won. The last six centuries have been the result of what a once bright, intelligent, savvy civilization turned to another way. Today, it is still metaphysics, only classed as politics versus reason. Which ever one rises to the top will determine our future, in the West.
"I have absolutely zero faith in AI. It is trained on what humans have written, which showcases all of our faults and tendencies"
There are still many domains where AI expert systems are outclassing human experts, if not exhibiting outright superhuman performance. The question is whether a takeoff-singularity will ever occur.
For quality control, assuming it does not go into hallucinations. Having read that it is already writing code so that it cannot be turned off, that does not seem like a positive to me.
To your point: Peco and I just published "Welcome to the Analog Renaissance: The Future is Trust".
We are facing a major crisis of trust because so much of our work and creativity will be the product of AI. But we have a choice, we can start to build outposts of human trust in the digital wilderness. At School of the Unconformed we are introducing a analog-digtial hybrid model as a way to establish trust between writers and readers. For practical starting points see:
https://schooloftheunconformed.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-analog-renaissance.
Also, seems we've been thinking along the same lines: in Sept 2024 my husband Peco and I discussed the impending change to our knowledge system in "The Flavors of Faux History: Preparing for the Collapse of Knowledge". As an anitdote we compiled an extensive "booklegging for history" list based on the recommendations of Substack writers and readers we collected. I've lifted the paywall for those who are interested :)https://schooloftheunconformed.substack.com/p/the-flavors-of-faux-history-preparing
This is incredible insight. Thank you for sharing.
I noticed a shift in the business world about twenty years ago, when client acquisition became all about trust. Performance, fees, extras all became second to trust.
Wow. very providential. I’ve been thinking about something like this.
I will add to Paul Hesse’s observation: These points apply almost exclusively to America. The opposite - upticks in education, reading, thinking, understanding, public discourse, science - can be observed today on clear display in Canada and China per Paul’s note, and as well in Taiwan, Iceland, Finland, Denmark, New Zealand, Mongolia, Ecuador, Slovenia, Norway, Portugal, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic
Well, my kids went through the public school system in Norway, and later did some university study in the US, and I can tell you the the so-called uptick in education, reading etc in Norway is closer to mixed to downticks. Reading levels of young males decline every year, we're finally going back to books in school after losing our minds over digital learning, but the elephant in the room remains the addiction to tech in all forms.
In any case, here's a good example of the west: When one of my kids was in 9th grade years ago, they thought they were doing advanced math. At an open PTA meeting a woman from China stood up and asked the board: why are 9th graders learning math we learn in China in 3rd grade?
To be fair, a laptop or a tablet is vastly easier to carry around and reference than ten different textbooks. The problem is more related to the open internet.
I am a teacher in Taiwan and I have had the opposite experience. Maybe on the surface it looks like these things are growing, but innreality, Taiwan is very committed to the technological bureaucracy. Kids are in schools from 7am until 7pm, or later. They're not reading or thinking, they're learning to memorize and to be good cogs in the system, which is even more so than in America, a top down system. From my perspective, many other countries are going through these same trends, they're just happening slower and, perhaps, because these countries can see what's happening in America, with less disruption.
7am until 7pm? Cripes, you're running a chain gang, that's worse than South Korea.
Do these people not realise that Finnland gets nearly identical PISA scores with about half as many hours in the school system? Why do parents inflict this on their children?
I agree that much (thought not all) of Ted's points relate to American decline rather than anything global. Having said that, the impact of the Silicon Valley companies is global (excepting China), and everyone is online which is no doubt fuelling loneliness and dissatisfaction everywhere. That's something we all need to push back on.
Orville Schell has written convincingly on the parallels between Trump and Mao. The anti-expert and anti-science etc bent of MAGA may be more about Trump trying to consolidate power through destroying institutions and less about inherent problems in the institutions.
I think maybe that is an example of reversing the disease and the symptom. The system has become weak as Ted describes, and Trump/MAGA are able to exploit that weakness. If the system were healthier Trump wouldn't be there in the first place. Trump is symptomatic of many things, not a cause in and of himself.
In all kindness, may I ask if it was any different prior to January 2025? I think it’s disingenuous to fall back on the “Orange Man bad” argument regarding this issue.
I understand your point, but since January 2025, and for the first time in US history, the country will experience a 'brain drain' to Europe of its scientists and innovators. The EU has already put up $500 million in start-up funds to accelerate the process, and there will be much more in the future.
The knowledge system was weakened even during the 2008 campaign. MAGA was already there. Remember the emergence of Sarah Palin, and that woman who said Obama was suspect because he was a Muslim before McCain shut her down. I'm doing precisely the opposite of the "Orange Man bad" argument. (Though he is very, very bad.)
Absolutely that is the main motive for their rhetoric but those institutions are vulnerable to that rhetoric because of flaws in the institutions.
TDS strikes again.
What does Trump or MAGA have to do with the convenient list of 10 signs? Nothing.
He and Musk are organising the technocracy that keeps all of us enslaved, with Trump as the figurehead.
Agreed on keeping us unslaved.
Regarding Trump as a figurehead, this is also partly TDS. Whatever you think of him, without Trump, we would be in a uniparty downward spiral of DEI, woke academia, censorship, intersectionalism, growing unfunded spending and so on. He is an unlikely hero needed for the current moment; whether he will succeed against all the intense resistance to every single thing is unclear, but no one else would dare to try hard enough.
You can take Leibniz's view if you wish: we live in the best possible world where everything is a necessary evil. Yet, recognition is due
I don't think Trump is doing the organizing, I think the situation is more like the 1st Triumvirate of Rome, enemies turned allies out of necessity. Which will only last as long as it is convenient.
I think Trump was more of a figurehead of the zionist jews (as opposed to the globalist jews), but I'm not sure if that is true any more. I think Trump is now more of a Thermidorean figure (French Rev faction trying to back off the fanatics before total ruin happens.) He is opening a lot of peoples' eyes to just how terrible things are, and giving people hope that they can get better.
I don't think things will get better, at least not before they get a whole lot worse first.
It’s global without a doubt
That is not my impression. People are just as divided and just as suspicious of authority in Canada and the UK as in the USA
You may be optimistic. Here in New Zealand, we are just traipsing sheepishly along behind the rest of the western world. All of Ted's trends prevail here, to varying degrees.
Not in the canada I live in.
In the Canada I live in, people aren’t as divided, but many, including me, are very suspicious of authorities. What the last election showed is that the Boomers are the only generation with a majority who still supports the status quo. The younger generations have far less faith in the expert class.
It is unfettered unrepentant and unhinged capitalism that is to blame.
More is better, reduce taxes for the super rich, make a buck. There is no balance or restraint anymore. No desire for sustained service to the customer. It's only about the shareholders.
Thanks Milton Friedman!
No, it’s deeper than that. It’s unhinged liberalism, for which capitalism is only its economic logic.
Be careful what you replace liberalism with. Looks like authoritarianism at this point.
Capitalism is is ok as long as business is forced to compete.
At this time it's all hedge funds and oligarchs. That is not Capitalism.
Yip was about the make that point.
Delusional
I’m not really following this point. U.S. universities are world leaders in cutting edge science and research. God help us all if they start crumbling. People commented on lowered standards in their respective countries. I’ve heard/seen standards slide in Canada, UK and France. In Tokyo, at some schools, you are required to maintain an iPad for schooling.
I'm concerned that instead of the arts and humanities assuming a larger role, religion will fill in the gaps…this is one of the worst potential horrors.
Christianity offers absolutely the most honest appraisal of the human condition ever devised, and the best and highest standards of morality. It is the only philosophy or religion which understands both good and evil, and the only one to provide both an unyielding standard and a path to redemption. You will rarely go wrong hiring a Biblically-sound Christian. They work for a higher boss.
The problem with "highest standards of morality" is that they are rarely followed especially by those who proclaim them. In the current climate they are also seen as weakness. As for hiring "Biblically-sound Christian(s)" they suffer from lack of doubt. And that is dangerous.
I think you need to surround yourself with apostolic Christians, like Orthodox or Catholics and less the prosperity gospel Christians.
While we're all sinners and we strive to sin less the apostolic traditions have a long history of martyrdom. That is the fullest form of a Christian following their morality to the grave.
I'm sorry, but as a lifelong Christian, I seriously dispute the assertion that we do not suffer doubt. You must not have had close relationships with many Christians. We are human and our faith is a conscious choice, often in the face of confusion, and throughout history Christians have undertaken great and careful study and examination of their beliefs, and still (Incredibly! What a shock!) decided that Christianity is the most truthful and best path.
Buddhism and Taoism seem to have done pretty well for themselves as well
Absolutely.
Sending you to 1Timothy 6:17-19 where instructions were given to Timothy from Apostle Paul regarding not placing hope on riches but on God with emphasis on working at good and be rich in fine works so that we may get a hold on the real life.
This system of things is collapsing as predicted by Jesus and reinforced by Apostle John in Revelation is coming rapidly to fruitition.
Events will all play out with government in conflict with religion.
From a science, tech, art and historical perspective it will be an interesting ride.
It also instills a lot of confidence and superiority in some people, to the point that they have absolute certainty that what they do is always good and in god's graces, usually completely ignoring the actual humans that sit in front of them.
Whether Christianity makes people better or not is as varied as the people that follow it.
Well that fits in with Ted's prediction that Romanticism is making a comeback. And I'm good with that. The youngs flocking to religion are looking for a sense of community and that's certainly an improvement over the isolation of technology.
Humanities have long been intertwined with religion. You cannot explore the human experience without some level of spirituality. How did become this way? Why are these greats themes of humanity - grief, guilt, love, joy, morality - so universal across millenia and cultures?
Science will want to answer that (and other related questions) biologically, and the humanities will want to answer that spiritually. Both ways have value.
I draw a sharp distinction between spirituality and religion, the latter being a sociopolitical power structure that pretends to address the former.
I also suspect that much (though I will not say all) that is commonly thought of as spiritual is actually an emergent property of our physical nature. By bracketing the "spiritual" off from the "biological" we risk damaging our understanding of both.
I think this is a self-defeating claim. You want spirituality apart from its natural embodiment in religion, but then want to say that spirituality is also closely connected to the physical world. Can't you see that those who follow religion are seeking exactly this, a spirituality that acknowledges and nourishes their embodied existence, not merely one that treats them as a soul-receptical? Religious ceremony and rite are one of the greatest expressions of this longing. And a study of history will also reveal that many religious people throughout history (including today) have held to their beliefs and rites in the face of a completely disenfranchising socio-political structure. See: communism in every country it has ever existed; Ancient Rome; Christians in any majority Muslim country today.
Interesting. Now, Islam is also a religion. As is Hinduism, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, and many, many other traditions of ritual and belief. Are not Muslims in muslim-majority countries also keeping their faith?
Of course they are. Not necessarily a true faith, but a faith all the same. Religion need not *necessarily* be opposed/disenfranchised in order to be true. However, if religion can be practiced even in the midst of complete opposition, then it is more than sociopolitical power.
The tendency to view all things, especially religion, as a form of power, is Marxist in origin. And it makes for shallow philosophy. Existence is not merely a struggle for power, and religion is not merely a grasping for power. We must look deeper into human nature for our meaning. Yes, spirituality is an aspect of that, but true and sincere spirituality leads to an embrace of religion, since our spiritual nature as humans is not isolated, but communal, and not merely cognitive, but embodied.
Hahaha, heeheehee!
The Laughing Gnome has entered the building. How are, Mr. Jones?
You need to make a distinction. In Christianity the High Church is thoroughly corrupted by Woke, with a succession of popes, archbishops, bishops etc having proved worldly, venal and political. The sense of crisis is causing growth in Christianity, lots of new people joining, only you won't see it in the cathedrals and trendy inner-city churches, only in small, traditional, family-oriented churches. In a way, this mirrors what Ted has written.
There's also the distinction between institutional religion and spirituality. The first is doomed. The second, however, may be entering a renaissance.
The latin community is different. They seem to have better values all around when it comes to faith and family! And work..
I'm talking rural america.. 10 churches in every village and 10 people in each.. or less.. social fabric has torn. I see a lot of judgment, gossip, condemnation all around very little "community". More a feeling of exclusivity and "do as I say" instead of real love and tolerance... holy rollers won't make it... and it's showing.
This country is in spiritual darkness ... church has failed.
I seriously doubt it. People are fed up with religion. Church has seen a decline
Not really. Young people and those with large families are flocking in droves to the traditional Latin Mass. And the more beautiful and ornate the awe-inspiring cathedral the better. It is verified and noticed all over. Clowns in Charlotte are the dying liberal “institution.”
Exactly this.
You cannot have humanities and arts without religion. These things are all part of what makes us human. My guess is that you actually fear religion being wielded by the powers that be, as some kind of inquisitorial weapon. But just like the arts and humanities, religion will fill in the "gaps" left by technology (or, rather, become the new foundation) not by enforcement at government level, but through the authentic and natural growth of communities and people towards the Good, True, and Beautiful. Arts and humanities uninformed by religion and moral conviction will go just as rotten as technology.
I've seen exactly what you mention; but I feel differently about the implications.
I am a physician from the last generation without chatGPT. I'm trained by reading textbooks, writing notes, solving online question banks, and using the internet to stay up to date. You can call it a hybrid model of education, between old-fashioned and new.
The 'new' method of learning is a total collapse into having 'trusted sources' feed the evidence to you. No more finding your own answers, No more criticism, no more weighing the evidence on the merits. Just ask ChatGPT. Add to that the increasing role of untrained APPs in administering medicine; and I feel that my future will be the only literate one in a sea of illiteracy. Like a medieval priest.
I feel those that subscribe to the older methods of knowledge acquisition will turn out just fine.
I'm a physician from the same generation as you. I also think we learn from rounding (discussing hospitalized patients' progress with other professionals), and seeing and learning from patients themselves. These both take time.
Now rounding is focused on how soon can this patient be discharged. Clinic visits are 10-15 minutes regardless of the problems encountered. Insurance companies and the people who pay their premiums do not value time. They value algorithms.
Absolutely. And quality of care is down the drain as a result
At least you all have plenty of Expert administrators!
I’m a physician too and feel strongly that our missteps as a profession have contributed greatly to the collapse in public trust of institutions. We’ve had one medical scandal after another, accelerating over the decades until a crescendo is reached in the opiate epidemic. Before that one can properly be accounted for, we have the failures of the pandemic and, the piece de resistance, pediatric gender medicine. We’ve gone full on Mengele with that last one and do not seem to be able to put the breaks on. Something has been very wrong in medicine for a while now - some of it is financial opportunism certainly but some is just straight up intolerance of dissent. We’ve gotten alarmingly censorious in the last 10 years, to the detriment of our own reputations.
100%
Most recently the forever boosters. All conveniently forgotten now; see if you find one colleague advocating a 7th booster these days
"We’ve had one medical scandal after another, accelerating over the decades until a crescendo is reached in the opiate epidemic." That's funny, wasn't there a "pandemic" since then, which represented the culmination of all these trends of abuse of trust? You can talk about it now, ARG, even Ted has mentioned it this time. Soon everyone will be able to talk about it without scandalising polite society!
Who are you arguing with? It literally says “pandemic” in the sentence after the one you quoted.
You're right, my mistake, sorry!
The problem is many of the written text are not only years behind, but over censured and editorialized. I would never ask ChatGPT to interpret anything for me but we have to be trained to look at raw data critically. I assume you have been around long enough to see so much medical ‘dogma’ fall by the wayside. But not before we have invested all those dollars and resources and lives to be the most cutting edge , up-to-date practitioners.
My current crusade is against Entresto and GDMT.
It's ridiculous how the whole field of cardiology has decided to abandon thinking and follow whatever is 'recommended'; despite all the evidence contrary.
Cardiology is a repeat offender. Anti-Arrhythmics to suppress PVCs, aspirin for all, aggressive stenting, calcium score.... It's ridiculous.
All this money and research and new drugs, for literally decades. And what remains the number one killer of Americans, Ischemic heart disease. Still. As if we are running in place
It gets better. HF mortality actually reversed trend and is back at 1990s level. Can’t possibly have anything to do with APPs/lazy cardiologists applying GDMT to all patients blindly without examining them + homeopathic doses of drugs because Entresto causes more hypotension for no gain. No siree.
What’s your disconnect with calcium scores? Im Allied Health and I’m curious
Here’s a good pro-argument: https://open.substack.com/pub/theskepticalcardiologist/p/the-skeptical-cardiologists-guide
Here are good antis: https://www.sensible-med.com/p/coronary-artery-calcium-trial-fails
https://www.aafp.org/pubs/afp/issues/2019/1215/p734.html
I shouldn’t lump calcium score with the other stuff; an honest representation is that it’s still an open debate AND there’s still a variety of approaches where some cardiologists swear by it and some cardiologists hate it. Honestly; that’s an ideal way to approach something while the question is still open.
But as the second link shows, it is quickly closing as a good test. My main hang-up is; are we proving such an approach meaningfully improves survival? If not, then we’re medicalizing people earlier and exposing them to the risk of doctors. The evidence for calcium scores still is not solid enough to justify medicalizing so many people earlier.
AI development right now seems to be a breakneck race between the acquisition of competence by AI models themselves, aspirationally ending with AGI, and the equally rapid demolition of competence in younger generations of humanity.
Which means there won't be much of a backup plan. I am furious with the people making this gamble.
I am 1000% convinced there will be no ‘AGI’ in medicine. I agree with the other side of your gamble and I think that’s the likeliest outcome.
The other option is do what Ted says and reject this Tower of Babel tech outright; before we are all dispersed into millions of languages.
Why am I convinced AGI is no threat to medicine? I could write a tome, but I’ll content myself with this: 80% of evidence appraisal is cynicism. Before I start reading a paper I need to reliably answer: ‘Why are the authors lying to me? How are they lying to me? Is this still good despite the lie?’
Notice I didn’t ask if they’re lying to me; the answer is always yes. Read through all the comments under mine and you’ll see how the physicians in here continually lament being lied to.
An AGI even in the utopian form they envision will never be able to do this. It will fall to entrenched interests like official guidelines, government bodies, and extremely famous journals did. In the blink of an eye too.
Well... an AGI is by definition capable of anything humans can do, including cynicism. It could get hoodwinked, sure, but it would eventually learn from the experience.
As long as there are instructions/prompts it has to take into account; it is not capable of the one thing that sets humanity apart from all of Creation: Free Will.
Big Pharma won’t even need to bribe legions of doctors or congressmen anymore. As simple as prompt engineering or poisoning the training data set. They are actually already hard at work doing that; see NEJM’s partnership with OpenEvidence. (The clinical AI tool prefers NEJM papers above others even when it makes no sense)
Well... setting aside the debate about free will, I'll agree there are tensions between AI being 'accountable' (i.e, enslaved) to human supervisors and also performing with superhuman rigour.
What's sad is that in Canada our healthcare is in such rough shape that I pray my physician uses ChatGPT or even Google. Oftentimes those two sources are superior to our physicians.
Canada is purely ‘you get what you pay for’. Have a young friend who had to wait 10 days for emergency surgery there that would be done almost immediately in the US.
US is quickly on that path though, thanks to the ACA and corruption
Yeah the US is not much better. Where there is the potential for grift, we get grift. Whether it's a private or public system. I hope that the US and Canadian models don't exhaust the available options because we're all effed if that's so.
A very smart friend of mine told me grift only exists where there’s a shortage; and it stuck with me. He spent his formative years in a collapsing USSR so the insights help
Technology is like fire. A good servant but a poor master. We have run smack dab into the limitations of technology, and it is us. My hope is that we reclaim spirituality (not sectarian dogma) as a central part of how we organize society and live our lives. The wider reality I speak about starts with acknowledging all of self--the emotional and spiritual [parts of our being along with the physical and mental.
...and that the humans are flawed and must acknowledge and forcibly mitigate their innate absence of compunction; the ease to which they will lie, cheat and steal; and their evangelized justifications to defeat moral and ethical behavior.
I would not use the same terms as you do. But then I regard self-judgment as the ultimate origin of that which you call lack of compunction. We lie, cheat, steal, and murder because we are scared. We are scared because we have lost our inner connection to our Divine source, however we imagine it. Thus we feel this world is cold and uncaring, and that our Creator is either dead or doesn't give a damn. And what we feel (about ourselves) is what we live. More compassion, maybe? Do not conflate compassion with weakness. Only the strongest allow themselves empathy and compassion for others' flaws and weaknesses--and their own.
Some people do it because they're scared. Some are just psychopaths.
Agree!
No surprises (I have sources), but solutions? I can only think of 2 (and I have been thinking for a while now): Either take your valuables and run to the most isolated spot possible or decide to work on your inner resources. Cultivate deep peace, love, and conciousness in house. Create solid community. Whatever you do though, it is time to pull our heads out from under and be physically, mentally, and emotionally prepared as best we can. The signs are gradual. They are intended to be. But the impact is full force. Because as Ted says, when the NY Times headlines it, 'Buddha' will be off and running at full speed.
It reminds me way back when with the sudden appearance of the Buzz word "DIGITAL" At the time time it was just a Lazy / Cheap marketing word that at first - meant NOTHING. Suddenly it was everywhere all at once - Digital this ,Digital that ... "Oh ,you've GOT to have it - NOW cause it's DIGITAL ! Really ? Sorry - NOT.
It was the KOOL thing to say when it was empty & meaningless. Just a Marketing Ploy.
The New thing you speak of however is now Real & starting to wreak actual Havoc on the Land of the Living. The Huge Changes you speak of most likely Won't have a good outcome for most of us.
I really Feel for you younger ones out there who will have to live with & deal with the Largest SCAM ever perpetrated on the Human Race
The younger ones will live with this mess but not sure they are capable of dealing with it as their heads are fully immersed in their phones. I guess some exceptions will deal with it and find a way thru the mess but not hopeful
There is a homeschool surge happening… look to these children to bring the “real” back!
Good point. Hopefully that happens
Man they said the exact same shit when i was a kid. Its ALWAYS the next generation thats going to have to deal with "these" problems. And theyll manage, one way or the other. And fuck up a bunch of shit and make other problems for their kids kids. And so it goes
My kids are way less on their phones than us parents
I think there's more truth than fiction in this, but it doesn't do enough to highlight how bad actors across all of these sectors set these dynamics up and exploit them for their own gain.
There are plenty of real-deal experts across many subjects but when there's money to be made they are shoved aside. The problem, then, isn't really the "expert" but the context within which they exist. Their "bosses" don't want to listen to them because they say things like "slow down" and "are you sure?" And the public doesn't want to listen to them because they're "experts" (aka elite, "out of touch" etc.).
Compounding the problem is the rise of celebrity scientists. Their fame may start in their expertise, but too often many begin to expound in areas well beyond their training and are taken more seriously there than is deserved. Linus Pauling and Neil DeGrasse Tyson are two examples.
There's a lot of money to be made in the attention economy by being a celebrity scientist these days, and it pains me to think that a nontrivial number of people in doctorate programs likely hope to make their mark there, rather than contributing actual knowledge and expertise to their field.
Absolutely! Another great point. Yet more bad actors ruining science and knowledge. Making matters even worse is that some universities actually incentivize and reward this pop science BS. It's just charlatans all the way down.
Space is the place.
Folks,
Get the record players going, enjoy the music in a way that they can't be nosy about, sit on your porch, memorize some parts of the Sacred Scriptures, Plant gardens of flowers and vegetables and share both with neighbors or the needy. Observe the sabbath and Lord's Day again even if you don't quite feel like it. The things that protect us, we must tend to.
Still making our garden larger. Started sharing a table full of free books outside - they're going like hotcakes! Don't use a smart phone. We do have a record player but also a CD player. Mixed bag but very fulfilling to do more reading, enjoying meals together, and visiting with the neighbors who walk by to pick up books! Loving life!
It's okay to use a CD player to listen to music. It's also okay to listen to mp3 files, and stream. The nostalgia for the record player is crazy, a fad of sorts. Most people have neither the technology (you know, a turntable or record player and a decent system to listen on. I do, but I rarely listen to records) or the records or the time to fiddle with that.
It's great that some people can do those things you're doing, but most can't or won't. Life is great if you have the ability to do things at leisure, but imagine if you had no money, a lousy job, or no "access" to health care. (By God, that evasive lying word "access" in that context drives me crazy.)
I appreciate the points you are making. Here's some background: At 78, I am now partially retired. We are still renters (45 years in this place). I earned minimum wage most of my 55+ years of working life. Gave up our car @ 25 years ago for both financial and environmental reasons, so now I ride the bus. I have had turntables most of that time. My husband's band put out their first LP in 1979 and it was just released by a company as a "collectible LP," because collectors want the old analog sound and that's why the turntable has made a comeback. I still listen to albums I purchased in the 60's and 70's. I also listen to CDs I purchased over the years. I don't use a smart phone - I use an old laptop. I can't believe how expensive smart phones are - I'm surprised anyone can afford them! I have always had access to health care if I could pay for it, and then I began receiving SS and got Medicare. I am fortunate since I don't get sick. Yes, I can now do some things at leisure because I have some extra time. I literally used to work up to 15 hours a day, but I can't do that any more due to physical changes, so I don't walk nor lift weight like I could years ago. Life changes. I roll with the punches, as they say. You are correct when you say not everyone can afford leisure time. Those of us who donate to different groups are well aware of the poverty in our country (and overseas) so we try to do what we can to help. Again I say - Loving life!
You've always had "access" to health care if you could pay for it? That means if you can't afford it, you don't get it. "Access" is irrelevant. I have "access" to a Lamborgini dealership about 20 miles from where I live; I can go in and look at the cars, touch them, but will never be able to afford them. Same too for about thirty million US citizens. Add in the people with bad insurance (it's great insurance as long as you never make a claim), and what do we have? A country in very serious moral trouble.
That just involves US citizens abominably served by a government in thrall to Finance Capital, but factor in the moral and criminal catastrophe of the Gaza genocide (plain as day, irrefutable, outrageous, ongoing, and well-documernted beyond dispute), and what do we have here? A culture in total failure on all fronts. I'm recently retired, and was fortunate to get a good job about 12 years ago, but I'm one of the lucky ones. Like you in some respects.
I don't really want to derail the conversation, but could you explain to me how the Gaza Genocide is "irrefutable"? The numbers just don't add up for me.
https://substack.com/@mabrowsing/note/c-120616718
I think you're straw-manning the person you're arguing with. He was giving beautiful examples of human activities-perhaps even the best examples of them. Just because he is promoting using a record player does not mean he is being exclusive of all other human activities. Try to understand the heart of what he is saying, not just the words.
You seem to have misunderstood what I was criticizing. How and where did I claim he was being exclusive of "all other human activities"(!) by his saying to get out the record player? Ironically, I did indeed get right to the heart of what he was saying, which was a bundle of cliches.
Thanks, but I dont feel any great need to "observe the sabbath" or "the Lord's day" (!). I just dont feel like it. That's like thinking putting "prayer back in schools" will get things on the right track. And, "get the record players going?" Memorize some lines from the "Sacred Scriptures?" Why? Your prescriptions sound like pure nostalgia for a past devoid of critical thinking, something in very short supply in this Great Land.
Use your memory, use technologies that aren't spied upon even though they are older, at least they don't emit the horrid light of this. Seek an inculcated practice of some begrudgement of electronics. Not sure why you think my "prescriptions" are nostalgic particularly for a past that was devoid of critical thinking. I think there is far less critical thinking now than when we had our turntables on and listened to the readings of sacred texts that proposed a morality with which to wrestle.
The idea that Christianity and critical thinking are mutually exclusive makes me wonder what weird Christianity do you have out West or what insane propaganda did you listen to.
A lot of people know which direction to walk, but not the exact destination. I have attempted to boil down what religion offered (specifically Christianity) that undergirded the liberal experiment that gave rise to so much of the wealth and quality of life that the western world enjoyed. It's very simple: love. Not as an emotion or flowery platitude, but as what it is in the Bible: self-sacrifice for the good of another. This is the force that protected our freedoms from disintegration. Freedom is at once our greatest gift but most exploitable weakness. Mary freedom to nihilism, and suddenly being a free-rider is rational, doing that underhanded thing to get ahead is rational.
Love, as a commitment to self-sacrifice for the good of another, is the direction. While traditions may help us to remember that, it's not the traditions themselves that are doing the good work. A lot of people know the direction but not the exact destination.
Walker Percy quotes Romano Guardini (from The End of the Modern World) at the beginning of his novel, The Last Gentleman: “We know now that the modern world is coming to an end … at the same time, the unbeliever will emerge from the fogs of secularism. He will cease to reap benefit from the values and forces developed by the very Revelation he denies … Loneliness in faith will be terrible. Love will disappear from the face of the public world, but the more precious will be that love which flows from one lonely person to another … the world to come will be filled with animosity and danger, but it will be a world open and clean.”
Walker Percy knows what’s up.
Todd, I am curious about Percy quoting Guardini. Is that in an intro or the body of the text? Thanks.
Gerald, it’s the epigraph, along with a quote from Kierkegaard’s Either/Or: “If a man cannot forget, he will never amount to much.”
As a scientist and educator, I have felt this, especially in the US. Thank you for your excellent reporting, Ted. This is an eye-opening happening.
I don't know if it actually happened or not (irony) but in Tom Hanks' cable series "From The Earth To The Moon," I seem to recall that some of the astronauts were given literature lessons and took poetry books, the better to describe their experiences in space. They knew science and beauty needed each other.
Smacks of Contact: "They should have sent a poet".
Science writer Fritjof Capra said that Leonardo's failure to publish his notebooks in his lifetime dealt a major blow to both science and art. It took 200 years for the world to get a good look at his genius, and by then science had gone one way and art another. Now we desperately need to heal the rift between the left brain and right brain, the rational and spiritual, the logical and magical. Until then, we can expect to live "not in a prison, but in a lunatic asylum," as Carl Jung predicted. Are we there yet?
I am a 78-year-old retired male computer programmer who lives in California.
Your emails present some ideas that appear to be very interesting. Besides being a musician who has often played jazz guitar in public, I worked for twenty years as a computer programmer and analyst for a medical insurance company. At that time many of us were aware that science was not the only source of wisdom, but it had done so much for us. One example involved the development of computing machines and some really amazing software. Home computers were already very popular, software companies had become extremely successful, cell phones were becoming much more useful, and AI was still mostly machine learning. Now most people appear to do the majority of their research and / or make most of their connections with new knowledge through their cell phones.
Many modern problems involve the fact that it has become difficult to trust the veracity of the vast sea of virtual information that is currently washing the sand from under our feet.
Nevertheless, many of us do seem to be becoming more directly involved with a side of human awareness that does not primarily depend upon logic and analysis. In other words instead of “I think, therefore I am”, many of us are are aware that a more profound way of being involves “I am, therefore I think.” Most of us confront of this alternate side of human awareness when we have a new and profound or “ah-ha” experience. Ultimately, this alternate side of being human can lead some of us to Unity Consciousness.
Timely and helpful although these U.S.-driven trends create differential opportunities for other countries. And since you cite the Renaissance, I'm looking forward to reading this; https://www.adapalmer.com/publication/inventing-the-renaissance/ "In Inventing the Renaissance, acclaimed historian Ada Palmer provides a fresh perspective on what makes this epoch so captivating. Her witty and irreverent journey through the fantasies historians have constructed about the period show how its legend derives more from later centuries’ mythmaking than from the often-grim reality of the period itself. " To mis-quote Barth, 'history is only the first rough draft of history'.
Wasn't that a good interview with Krugman?? I'm definitely looking forward to reading Ada Palmer's book, as well.
I'm here for the 'Ubiquitous Paul' era! https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/inventing-the-renaissance-ada-palmer?r=2mhcy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
Funny. He is!
I think this heralds not just a backlash, but a collapse into a quasi- (or complete) dark age.
Let's say we have a society that is healthily staffed with experts. Part of their function in any given society is selection and transmission of important and useful knowledge - whether government, education, blue-collar, or random philosophers.
In any given point, humanity generates an immense amount of knowledge, and these experts function as noise filters - trying to find the best and worthiest knowledge to pass along. Experts here is a broad and diffuse category, including car mechanics, artists, philosopers, teachers, scientists of various stripes, etc.
(In a way, the same was supposed to be the function of the scientific method - an attempt for a scientist to, as much as possible, filter out noise, irrelevancies, etc. and get to the heart of a matter in a way that allowed other scientists to replicate (or not) the outcomes, observations, etc...)
This works, in any given society, so long as the experts themselves are truly self-policing - truly willing to call out non-experts in their midst for unbiased reasons. However, along the recent way, elite experts decided that the only ones excluded from their midst would be those with whom they politically disagreed or those whose investigations and outcomes conflicted with a certain set of assumptions and beliefs. In short, the search for Truth was abandoned by gatekeepers, and the search for "pronoun Truth" (my truth, their truth, your truth, etc) was on. Bulverism in action - "A rhetorical fallacy in which a speaker assumes that their opponent's argument is wrong, and instead of disproving it, condescendingly explains why their opponent would have come to that conclusion."
And thus, experts failed in their functions, both of gatekeeping and of selection and transmission of good knowledge. Once these fail, necessary knowledge MUST be lost. It is not lost through burning books or other violent destruction - it is lost because those that have it can find nobody to listen to it or carry it on, and those that do not have it...cannot be aware of what is lost.
Eventually, things will break down, from simple to complex, and the world will suddenly realize that nobody is left to fix them, because some critical knowledge of a particular widget isn't there. This will continue in a chaotic spiral.
Read the recent FP post by Tyler Cowen called "Everyone's Using AI to Cheat," wherein he applauds students who use AI and professors who use AI to grade. Does this strike nobody as odd, wherein AI-generated classwork and homework is graded and corrected by AI-generated professor comments? Where is the brain in all this?
“Pronoun truth” - that’s good. But somewhat presupposes that there is really A truth.
I say, “The one truth is no truth, and no truth is the one truth, and this one truth may be no truth.” Or something like that.
Funny word truth. Doesn’t bear repeating too often.
"Pronoun Clarity" is more ambiguous than "Pronoun Truth" but it does peel a few more layers off the onion.
Onions, tears, I’m seeing a connection.
I have absolutely zero faith in AI. It is trained on what humans have written, which showcases all of our faults and tendencies. Is it any wonder that it produces hallucinations, we humans are known to lie and cheat, why not AI. We make up things, not unlike AI making up code, so that it cannot be turned off. We are entrusting a technology to be better than us, when it is trained on and by us. That does not make any sense, to me.
Back in the 1400's, maybe 1500's, the greatest Islamic metaphysician and the greatest Islamic promoter of reason as a way forward, met. The result of that meeting was the metaphysician won. The last six centuries have been the result of what a once bright, intelligent, savvy civilization turned to another way. Today, it is still metaphysics, only classed as politics versus reason. Which ever one rises to the top will determine our future, in the West.
So true regarding AI. Brings to mind the old saying, "garbage in, garbage out".
Very succinct and also very true.
"I have absolutely zero faith in AI. It is trained on what humans have written, which showcases all of our faults and tendencies"
There are still many domains where AI expert systems are outclassing human experts, if not exhibiting outright superhuman performance. The question is whether a takeoff-singularity will ever occur.
For quality control, assuming it does not go into hallucinations. Having read that it is already writing code so that it cannot be turned off, that does not seem like a positive to me.
You're not wrong.
That my friend is the problem, I want to be.