This doesn't disprove your prediction, but it's worth noting that the "'final' Beatles song" using AI is not generating John's voice from scratch, but using AI to clean up his voice on a recording that was given to the other Beatles back when they did the Anthology sessions that produced "Free as a Bird" and "Real Love."
That said I expect truly artificial Beatles songs any day now.
Back in the 1970s, some audio team cleaned up and adjusted an old recording of Enrico Caruso. The idea was to undo all the distortion and smooth out the noise. I knew some opera geeks at the time, and they were all pretty impressed with the results. I also knew some signal processing geeks at the time, and they were also pretty impressed. Not the same people though.
That is one reason I cannot find it in myself to completely condemn piracy. A good many works that would have been lost forever have been saved because somebody had a copy hidden away, and it is usually a copy they should not have had.
You often hear about this. When they want to release some old movie on DVD, they try to use whatever the studio has, but they often get in touch with "private collectors" who may have film or even video of unclear provenance.
Some of these "private collectors" are just that, private collectors, but a lot of them are people in the business, many of whom have amazing collections. They almost always have their own portfolio, stuff from friends' portfolios and copies of stuff that was just "going around".
As a minor league consultant, I soon realized that predicting "gloom and doom" was the safest thing I could do. If it came true, I was a visionary. If it didn't, then everybody was so relieved that they essentially forgot about my prediction.
Yeah, I know this is "cynical!" Glad I don't have to play "consultant" game again!
A few years ago I went on a Burt Reynolds odyssey and was surprised when I was obliged to buy a copy of the Cannonball Run in order to complete my experience of "the classics", as this was not a film I ever thought would be a permanent addition to my library. The elusiveness of Wild at Heart on streaming platforms has also long bothered me. Meanwhile when I wanted to watch One Million Years BC after visiting a Ray Harryhausen exhibition in Edinburgh I discovered that it, too, was nowhere to be streamed. Peter Greenaway films are also hard to find, though he has won lots of awards and used to be very famous in arthouse circles. Relying on cloud-based "content" services run by large corporations is shortsighted to say the least, even more so in light of Disney's egregious censorship of the French Connection — even the films that are available to stream may not be the films we remember. I predict that the aftermarket for DVDs and Blu-Rays will soon show vigorous signs of life.
I almost always go for DVD or Bluray. I'm much more likely to be able to watch it. I don't watch a lot of stuff, so I'll put something on my playlist and when I finally get a chance to watch, the streamers have pulled it. At least I could tape movies on late night movie shows. I can't do that with Netflix and its ilk. It's a definite step backwards.
Ted, I’d like to read that letter from Ms Miller but it’s behind a paywall and I refuse to give the newspaper that supported Walter Duranty my money. Can you please summarize? I can’t even imagine a single reason to deny the great Duke Ellington that prize in 1965--at almost the end of his incredible life in music!
"There have been numerous instances when no Pulitzer Prize was conferred. In 1965, the three-person nominating jury in music unanimously agreed that none of the eligible compositions that year were worthy of the award.
Instead, they proposed that a special citation be awarded to Duke Ellington for his overall contributions to American music. When the Pulitzer Board declined, there was a public controversy over what some saw as a cultural injustice rooted in racial prejudice. Up to that point, the composers who had been awarded Pulitzers did not include people of color.
In 1996, George Walker became the first African American to win the Pulitzer Prize for music, for his work “Lilacs.” In 1999, the Pulitzer Board finally awarded a special Pulitzer citation to Ellington on the occasion of his centennial year. The award expressly honored Ellington’s “indelible contribution to art and culture” and implicitly redressed a grave wrong."
It seems she is saying that *no one* got the '65 Pulitzer. She further states that Ellington got a Special Pulitzer in '99, on his centennial, in honor of his contributions to art & culture. So her claim is that "Ellington did get a Pulitzer", tho he did not get *that* Pulitzer (in '65).
“We believe that special citations are as consequential as our other awards. Ellington was indeed special, in the pantheon with such music citation awardees as Aretha Franklin, Bob Dylan, John Coltrane, George Gershwin and others. As Terry Teachout, one of Ellington’s biographers, correctly observed, “In 1999 he got his Pulitzer.”
What am I missing? Ellington has a Pulitzer, right? If there is a particular need for him to be awarded a different Pulitzer, I’d like to hear that argument. (Yes, I did read the original post.) Happy to get behind that effort if a reasoned retort to Marjorie Miller’s letter is given. Today’s “don’t let history forget that she did this” seems a bit salty, but it may be warranted. I’d just love to know more.
Great article and I love your courage to look at your past predictions! Well done.
What’s the best way to spend money that goes to the artists? I don’t like paying for a music subscription. I often buy on iTunes but maybe there is a better way?
That TikTok graph only shows stats for videos with 10 million views or more. Seems that’s only tip-of-the-iceberg numbers. As folks in TikTok are fond of saying, there are many “sides” to TikTok. Personally, I *never* see major label artist videos, influencer videos, or trends. I established what I liked and wanted more of from day one and the algorithm has obliged. There are many people who have found encouragement, support, education, and their niche tribe on TikTok. To view the app as simply a trendy music platform is to miss the rest of the elephant. People with neurodivergent issues, folks who want to start their own businesses, artisans and craftsmen, amateurs and upstarts of every stripe, they are all finding their audience or tribe on TikTok. Are there issues that should be fixed? Sure. But everyone seems eager to throw many babies out with the bath water just because they personally don’t see the others “sides of TikTok”. My entire feed is filled with real people who are happy to have found likeminded folks via this app that they never would’ve found otherwise. I encourage anyone to go search your own personal interests on TikTok and prime the algorithm with your own unique preferences. Then watch what happens. It’s the best algorithm out there, bar none. I have discovered hundreds of independent musicians this way.
On the increase in classical music streaming - haven't a few of the big streamers improved their search functions for classical music? That might explain the increase in interest (I stream classical music with the app Idagio but some of the recent changes might have made the mainstream ones good enough for me to use instead). However, I hope the recent uptick in classical music interest is long-term and leads to more young listeners!
I had kind of forgotten all about it. I hadn't been on Primephonic for very long before it disappeared. It's hard for me to consider Apple Music just for historical reasons (having a grandfathered YT Music + YT Premium plan), but the idea of having a proper classical service, with good search, is tempting....
Classical music is due for a major resurgence in our lifetime (so says my wishful thinking). There is too much technical virtuosity, not to mention beauty, in those works for them simply to be forgotten. Even if they don't top the charts, there is still much life and creativity left in classical music. Plus, I'd pay to see a cantankerous holographic Beethoven conducting his 7th Symphony "live" on stage.
You are spot on! There are plenty of talented kids to be had, but if the record labels won't sign them, nurture them, even allow the first album or two to suck without cancelling them, then good new music just isn't going to happen.
If the first album or two suck, no one is going to listen to the third album. Extrapolate that proposition to any product and the product will fail. No one wants to invest in failure. Practice at home, not on the job.
You say "streaming subscription price increases" are inevitable. Is that prima facie a *bad* thing? Since Spotify's price hasn't changed since launch (at least in UK/US), the value of payouts to artist has steadily devalued with inflation etc. I would have thought an increase in the cost of Premium was about due.
This doesn't disprove your prediction, but it's worth noting that the "'final' Beatles song" using AI is not generating John's voice from scratch, but using AI to clean up his voice on a recording that was given to the other Beatles back when they did the Anthology sessions that produced "Free as a Bird" and "Real Love."
That said I expect truly artificial Beatles songs any day now.
I doubt that will come in Paul's lifetime. After that, I don't know.
Back in the 1970s, some audio team cleaned up and adjusted an old recording of Enrico Caruso. The idea was to undo all the distortion and smooth out the noise. I knew some opera geeks at the time, and they were all pretty impressed with the results. I also knew some signal processing geeks at the time, and they were also pretty impressed. Not the same people though.
Hate to say it but piracy solves the long tail. Every classic or forgotten classic is found there
That is one reason I cannot find it in myself to completely condemn piracy. A good many works that would have been lost forever have been saved because somebody had a copy hidden away, and it is usually a copy they should not have had.
You often hear about this. When they want to release some old movie on DVD, they try to use whatever the studio has, but they often get in touch with "private collectors" who may have film or even video of unclear provenance.
Some of these "private collectors" are just that, private collectors, but a lot of them are people in the business, many of whom have amazing collections. They almost always have their own portfolio, stuff from friends' portfolios and copies of stuff that was just "going around".
As a minor league consultant, I soon realized that predicting "gloom and doom" was the safest thing I could do. If it came true, I was a visionary. If it didn't, then everybody was so relieved that they essentially forgot about my prediction.
Yeah, I know this is "cynical!" Glad I don't have to play "consultant" game again!
My late father used to say the the prophet of doom is never wrong, for the same reasons.
That TikTok is tanking (TankTok) is hilarious
Same old thing - Bring em' up & then Put em' down. It's the Ah-Mare-Kin way
A few years ago I went on a Burt Reynolds odyssey and was surprised when I was obliged to buy a copy of the Cannonball Run in order to complete my experience of "the classics", as this was not a film I ever thought would be a permanent addition to my library. The elusiveness of Wild at Heart on streaming platforms has also long bothered me. Meanwhile when I wanted to watch One Million Years BC after visiting a Ray Harryhausen exhibition in Edinburgh I discovered that it, too, was nowhere to be streamed. Peter Greenaway films are also hard to find, though he has won lots of awards and used to be very famous in arthouse circles. Relying on cloud-based "content" services run by large corporations is shortsighted to say the least, even more so in light of Disney's egregious censorship of the French Connection — even the films that are available to stream may not be the films we remember. I predict that the aftermarket for DVDs and Blu-Rays will soon show vigorous signs of life.
I almost always go for DVD or Bluray. I'm much more likely to be able to watch it. I don't watch a lot of stuff, so I'll put something on my playlist and when I finally get a chance to watch, the streamers have pulled it. At least I could tape movies on late night movie shows. I can't do that with Netflix and its ilk. It's a definite step backwards.
Ted, I’d like to read that letter from Ms Miller but it’s behind a paywall and I refuse to give the newspaper that supported Walter Duranty my money. Can you please summarize? I can’t even imagine a single reason to deny the great Duke Ellington that prize in 1965--at almost the end of his incredible life in music!
Hi, here is a chunk of Ms. Miller's letter:
"There have been numerous instances when no Pulitzer Prize was conferred. In 1965, the three-person nominating jury in music unanimously agreed that none of the eligible compositions that year were worthy of the award.
Instead, they proposed that a special citation be awarded to Duke Ellington for his overall contributions to American music. When the Pulitzer Board declined, there was a public controversy over what some saw as a cultural injustice rooted in racial prejudice. Up to that point, the composers who had been awarded Pulitzers did not include people of color.
In 1996, George Walker became the first African American to win the Pulitzer Prize for music, for his work “Lilacs.” In 1999, the Pulitzer Board finally awarded a special Pulitzer citation to Ellington on the occasion of his centennial year. The award expressly honored Ellington’s “indelible contribution to art and culture” and implicitly redressed a grave wrong."
It seems she is saying that *no one* got the '65 Pulitzer. She further states that Ellington got a Special Pulitzer in '99, on his centennial, in honor of his contributions to art & culture. So her claim is that "Ellington did get a Pulitzer", tho he did not get *that* Pulitzer (in '65).
Hmmm. Sounds like northeastern JimCrowism to me.
The final paragraph of her letter reads:
“We believe that special citations are as consequential as our other awards. Ellington was indeed special, in the pantheon with such music citation awardees as Aretha Franklin, Bob Dylan, John Coltrane, George Gershwin and others. As Terry Teachout, one of Ellington’s biographers, correctly observed, “In 1999 he got his Pulitzer.”
What am I missing? Ellington has a Pulitzer, right? If there is a particular need for him to be awarded a different Pulitzer, I’d like to hear that argument. (Yes, I did read the original post.) Happy to get behind that effort if a reasoned retort to Marjorie Miller’s letter is given. Today’s “don’t let history forget that she did this” seems a bit salty, but it may be warranted. I’d just love to know more.
Thanks for all you do!
Great article and I love your courage to look at your past predictions! Well done.
What’s the best way to spend money that goes to the artists? I don’t like paying for a music subscription. I often buy on iTunes but maybe there is a better way?
Bandcamp
Yes! Or even better the artist shop page if it's on the artist website.
That TikTok graph only shows stats for videos with 10 million views or more. Seems that’s only tip-of-the-iceberg numbers. As folks in TikTok are fond of saying, there are many “sides” to TikTok. Personally, I *never* see major label artist videos, influencer videos, or trends. I established what I liked and wanted more of from day one and the algorithm has obliged. There are many people who have found encouragement, support, education, and their niche tribe on TikTok. To view the app as simply a trendy music platform is to miss the rest of the elephant. People with neurodivergent issues, folks who want to start their own businesses, artisans and craftsmen, amateurs and upstarts of every stripe, they are all finding their audience or tribe on TikTok. Are there issues that should be fixed? Sure. But everyone seems eager to throw many babies out with the bath water just because they personally don’t see the others “sides of TikTok”. My entire feed is filled with real people who are happy to have found likeminded folks via this app that they never would’ve found otherwise. I encourage anyone to go search your own personal interests on TikTok and prime the algorithm with your own unique preferences. Then watch what happens. It’s the best algorithm out there, bar none. I have discovered hundreds of independent musicians this way.
On the increase in classical music streaming - haven't a few of the big streamers improved their search functions for classical music? That might explain the increase in interest (I stream classical music with the app Idagio but some of the recent changes might have made the mainstream ones good enough for me to use instead). However, I hope the recent uptick in classical music interest is long-term and leads to more young listeners!
I think you may have something there. Since Apple brought out its Classical app, I’ve found it much easier to find works as well as discover works.
Was that using Primephonic's technology?
I believe so.
I had kind of forgotten all about it. I hadn't been on Primephonic for very long before it disappeared. It's hard for me to consider Apple Music just for historical reasons (having a grandfathered YT Music + YT Premium plan), but the idea of having a proper classical service, with good search, is tempting....
Amen.
Classical music is due for a major resurgence in our lifetime (so says my wishful thinking). There is too much technical virtuosity, not to mention beauty, in those works for them simply to be forgotten. Even if they don't top the charts, there is still much life and creativity left in classical music. Plus, I'd pay to see a cantankerous holographic Beethoven conducting his 7th Symphony "live" on stage.
You are spot on! There are plenty of talented kids to be had, but if the record labels won't sign them, nurture them, even allow the first album or two to suck without cancelling them, then good new music just isn't going to happen.
If the first album or two suck, no one is going to listen to the third album. Extrapolate that proposition to any product and the product will fail. No one wants to invest in failure. Practice at home, not on the job.
Think REM
I know the name but I've never listened to their music and know nothing about them.
Exactly my point
Hi Ted. I would say you're matching up pretty well to Nostradamus
As the saying goes, If you want to make God laugh tell Him your plans.
But if you want God to really chortle make a prediction.
You say "streaming subscription price increases" are inevitable. Is that prima facie a *bad* thing? Since Spotify's price hasn't changed since launch (at least in UK/US), the value of payouts to artist has steadily devalued with inflation etc. I would have thought an increase in the cost of Premium was about due.
“I’m now eagerly awaiting the new Sonny & Cher track to drop.”
A.I. Got You Babe?
With the lack of good old stuff on streaming I wonder if torrenting will make a come back.