This doesn't disprove your prediction, but it's worth noting that the "'final' Beatles song" using AI is not generating John's voice from scratch, but using AI to clean up his voice on a recording that was given to the other Beatles back when they did the Anthology sessions that produced "Free as a Bird" and "Real Love."
That said I expect truly artificial Beatles songs any day now.
As a minor league consultant, I soon realized that predicting "gloom and doom" was the safest thing I could do. If it came true, I was a visionary. If it didn't, then everybody was so relieved that they essentially forgot about my prediction.
Yeah, I know this is "cynical!" Glad I don't have to play "consultant" game again!
A few years ago I went on a Burt Reynolds odyssey and was surprised when I was obliged to buy a copy of the Cannonball Run in order to complete my experience of "the classics", as this was not a film I ever thought would be a permanent addition to my library. The elusiveness of Wild at Heart on streaming platforms has also long bothered me. Meanwhile when I wanted to watch One Million Years BC after visiting a Ray Harryhausen exhibition in Edinburgh I discovered that it, too, was nowhere to be streamed. Peter Greenaway films are also hard to find, though he has won lots of awards and used to be very famous in arthouse circles. Relying on cloud-based "content" services run by large corporations is shortsighted to say the least, even more so in light of Disney's egregious censorship of the French Connection — even the films that are available to stream may not be the films we remember. I predict that the aftermarket for DVDs and Blu-Rays will soon show vigorous signs of life.
Ted, I’d like to read that letter from Ms Miller but it’s behind a paywall and I refuse to give the newspaper that supported Walter Duranty my money. Can you please summarize? I can’t even imagine a single reason to deny the great Duke Ellington that prize in 1965--at almost the end of his incredible life in music!
Great article and I love your courage to look at your past predictions! Well done.
What’s the best way to spend money that goes to the artists? I don’t like paying for a music subscription. I often buy on iTunes but maybe there is a better way?
That TikTok graph only shows stats for videos with 10 million views or more. Seems that’s only tip-of-the-iceberg numbers. As folks in TikTok are fond of saying, there are many “sides” to TikTok. Personally, I *never* see major label artist videos, influencer videos, or trends. I established what I liked and wanted more of from day one and the algorithm has obliged. There are many people who have found encouragement, support, education, and their niche tribe on TikTok. To view the app as simply a trendy music platform is to miss the rest of the elephant. People with neurodivergent issues, folks who want to start their own businesses, artisans and craftsmen, amateurs and upstarts of every stripe, they are all finding their audience or tribe on TikTok. Are there issues that should be fixed? Sure. But everyone seems eager to throw many babies out with the bath water just because they personally don’t see the others “sides of TikTok”. My entire feed is filled with real people who are happy to have found likeminded folks via this app that they never would’ve found otherwise. I encourage anyone to go search your own personal interests on TikTok and prime the algorithm with your own unique preferences. Then watch what happens. It’s the best algorithm out there, bar none. I have discovered hundreds of independent musicians this way.
On the increase in classical music streaming - haven't a few of the big streamers improved their search functions for classical music? That might explain the increase in interest (I stream classical music with the app Idagio but some of the recent changes might have made the mainstream ones good enough for me to use instead). However, I hope the recent uptick in classical music interest is long-term and leads to more young listeners!
Classical music is due for a major resurgence in our lifetime (so says my wishful thinking). There is too much technical virtuosity, not to mention beauty, in those works for them simply to be forgotten. Even if they don't top the charts, there is still much life and creativity left in classical music. Plus, I'd pay to see a cantankerous holographic Beethoven conducting his 7th Symphony "live" on stage.
You are spot on! There are plenty of talented kids to be had, but if the record labels won't sign them, nurture them, even allow the first album or two to suck without cancelling them, then good new music just isn't going to happen.
You say "streaming subscription price increases" are inevitable. Is that prima facie a *bad* thing? Since Spotify's price hasn't changed since launch (at least in UK/US), the value of payouts to artist has steadily devalued with inflation etc. I would have thought an increase in the cost of Premium was about due.
This doesn't disprove your prediction, but it's worth noting that the "'final' Beatles song" using AI is not generating John's voice from scratch, but using AI to clean up his voice on a recording that was given to the other Beatles back when they did the Anthology sessions that produced "Free as a Bird" and "Real Love."
That said I expect truly artificial Beatles songs any day now.
Hate to say it but piracy solves the long tail. Every classic or forgotten classic is found there
As a minor league consultant, I soon realized that predicting "gloom and doom" was the safest thing I could do. If it came true, I was a visionary. If it didn't, then everybody was so relieved that they essentially forgot about my prediction.
Yeah, I know this is "cynical!" Glad I don't have to play "consultant" game again!
That TikTok is tanking (TankTok) is hilarious
A few years ago I went on a Burt Reynolds odyssey and was surprised when I was obliged to buy a copy of the Cannonball Run in order to complete my experience of "the classics", as this was not a film I ever thought would be a permanent addition to my library. The elusiveness of Wild at Heart on streaming platforms has also long bothered me. Meanwhile when I wanted to watch One Million Years BC after visiting a Ray Harryhausen exhibition in Edinburgh I discovered that it, too, was nowhere to be streamed. Peter Greenaway films are also hard to find, though he has won lots of awards and used to be very famous in arthouse circles. Relying on cloud-based "content" services run by large corporations is shortsighted to say the least, even more so in light of Disney's egregious censorship of the French Connection — even the films that are available to stream may not be the films we remember. I predict that the aftermarket for DVDs and Blu-Rays will soon show vigorous signs of life.
Ted, I’d like to read that letter from Ms Miller but it’s behind a paywall and I refuse to give the newspaper that supported Walter Duranty my money. Can you please summarize? I can’t even imagine a single reason to deny the great Duke Ellington that prize in 1965--at almost the end of his incredible life in music!
Great article and I love your courage to look at your past predictions! Well done.
What’s the best way to spend money that goes to the artists? I don’t like paying for a music subscription. I often buy on iTunes but maybe there is a better way?
That TikTok graph only shows stats for videos with 10 million views or more. Seems that’s only tip-of-the-iceberg numbers. As folks in TikTok are fond of saying, there are many “sides” to TikTok. Personally, I *never* see major label artist videos, influencer videos, or trends. I established what I liked and wanted more of from day one and the algorithm has obliged. There are many people who have found encouragement, support, education, and their niche tribe on TikTok. To view the app as simply a trendy music platform is to miss the rest of the elephant. People with neurodivergent issues, folks who want to start their own businesses, artisans and craftsmen, amateurs and upstarts of every stripe, they are all finding their audience or tribe on TikTok. Are there issues that should be fixed? Sure. But everyone seems eager to throw many babies out with the bath water just because they personally don’t see the others “sides of TikTok”. My entire feed is filled with real people who are happy to have found likeminded folks via this app that they never would’ve found otherwise. I encourage anyone to go search your own personal interests on TikTok and prime the algorithm with your own unique preferences. Then watch what happens. It’s the best algorithm out there, bar none. I have discovered hundreds of independent musicians this way.
On the increase in classical music streaming - haven't a few of the big streamers improved their search functions for classical music? That might explain the increase in interest (I stream classical music with the app Idagio but some of the recent changes might have made the mainstream ones good enough for me to use instead). However, I hope the recent uptick in classical music interest is long-term and leads to more young listeners!
Classical music is due for a major resurgence in our lifetime (so says my wishful thinking). There is too much technical virtuosity, not to mention beauty, in those works for them simply to be forgotten. Even if they don't top the charts, there is still much life and creativity left in classical music. Plus, I'd pay to see a cantankerous holographic Beethoven conducting his 7th Symphony "live" on stage.
You are spot on! There are plenty of talented kids to be had, but if the record labels won't sign them, nurture them, even allow the first album or two to suck without cancelling them, then good new music just isn't going to happen.
Hi Ted. I would say you're matching up pretty well to Nostradamus
As the saying goes, If you want to make God laugh tell Him your plans.
But if you want God to really chortle make a prediction.
You say "streaming subscription price increases" are inevitable. Is that prima facie a *bad* thing? Since Spotify's price hasn't changed since launch (at least in UK/US), the value of payouts to artist has steadily devalued with inflation etc. I would have thought an increase in the cost of Premium was about due.
“I’m now eagerly awaiting the new Sonny & Cher track to drop.”
A.I. Got You Babe?
With the lack of good old stuff on streaming I wonder if torrenting will make a come back.