"The Movie Business is Over"

Hollywood is in crisis—and its secret plan for survival will only make things worse

“The movie business is over,” Jerry Seinfeld quipped in an interview published this week in GQ.

Seinfeld is a brilliant comedian, but this was no joke. Mr. S. is actually promoting a movie right now—so he has every reason to strut and preen as a Hollywood filmmaker. But in 2024, the world has changed.

“Film doesn’t occupy the pinnacle in the social, cultural hierarchy that it did for most of our lives,” he continues. He worries that people don’t talk about new movies or quote their favorite lines, the way they once did.

Hollywood insiders still act as if they dominate the culture, but, according to Seinfeld, “they have no idea.”

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The interviewer asked the obvious follow-up question: “What do you think has replaced film?”

And Seinfeld responded with the most depressing assessment of the entertainment industry I’ve heard anywhere:

Depression? Malaise? I would say confusion. Disorientation replaced the movie business. Everyone I know in show business, every day, is going, What’s going on? How do you do this? What are we supposed to do now?

How can this be true? Last summer everything seemed so fine—Barbie and Oppenheimer were our dream couple, revitalizing the US movie business. Or so we were told.

But just look at the monthly box office trend since then. It’s a lonesome time out there at the mall multiplexes.

A few months ago, Hollywood insiders were hoping for a $10 billion plus year in 2023. But holiday revenues were about as exciting as a stale tin can fruitcake—and it’s gotten even more rancid since then. The current run rate is less than half the Barbenheimer peak.

It’s worth pointing out that before COVID, domestic movie box office receipts exceeded $10 billion for ten years in a row! Unless something changes, they will never see that level again.

Am I too pessimistic? Well, let’s dig more deeply into the Hollywood crisis and see what we learn.