Substack Has Changed in the Last 30 Days
The people who hate us now love us—should we be worried?
Everything happens so quickly at Substack. And in just the last few days, something big has changed.
By my measure, we’ve suddenly reached stage four in the evolution of this platform.
And I expect we will quickly get to level five (more on that below). But first let’s look at how we got here.
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STAGE ONE
In the first stage, people ignored us. That was easy enough—Substack was small and out on the very fringes of the media world.
When I told people I published a Substack, I got blank stares. I tried to explain what Substack was. That wasn’t easy, because I wasn’t really sure myself.
Was I publishing a newsletter? Was I now just another blogger? Even worse, had I signed up for some cult or pyramid scheme?
I like to think of myself as a culture historian. Or maybe an essayist, who sometimes dabbles in journalism. But what I was now doing with The Honest Broker didn’t fit easily into those (or any other) categories.
Of course, this didn’t really matter—because nobody paid any attention whatsoever.
If someone asked about Substack, I said it was an “alternative publishing platform”—and left it at that.
But this anonymity didn’t last long.
STAGE TWO
In the second stage, people mocked us.
Substack had arrived—but only as the punchline to a joke. Or the pretext for a derisive cartoon in The New Yorker.
In this cartoon, a dismayed woman stares at her laptop and complains to her partner: “My mother’s upgrading the holiday newsletter to a paid Substack.”
During this period, Substack finally got noticed by the establishment. But they treated us like a circus that shows up uninvited on the edge of town. No matter how many tickets we’ve sold, we’re still just clowns and grifters.
Then something unexpected happened. The circus never left town—instead we kept growing.
So now we entered stage three.
STAGE THREE
That’s when powerful people began attacking Substack. They especially hated the fact that this platform lets writers decide what to write, and readers decide what to read.
That made them uneasy. It shouldn’t be allowed.
Around this time, total strangers started sending me rude emails—one wrote me four times during the course of a single week, telling me the various rules and controls he wanted to impose on my work.
These attacks soon lost steam. Few found them convincing, and Substack’s growth didn’t slow down a whit.
Judging by my experience, we actually expanded our audience because of this organized hate campaign. That often happens to censors. They add to the allure of what they try to censor.
Of course, it didn’t help the credibility of these assaults that many who attacked Substack soon decided to join it.
Some had no choice—they lost their jobs with legacy media. Or, in many cases, their previous employer disappeared entirely, as part of the ongoing media meltdown.
But the larger truth is that writers of all ideologies and persuasions began to grasp the value of a publishing platform that resists bullying by politicians, billionaires, or interest groups.
Democracy can’t operate without that kind of independence, and Substack has done more than any organization I know to protect journalism from brute power.
But this has led to stage four in Substack’s evolution.
STAGE FOUR
The establishment is now in a mad rush to join us. Just in the last 30 days, the whole vibe has shifted.
This is probably a good thing—although I will admit to some anxiety over gentrification here. But even more to the point, this is an inevitable next step.
I guess we’re the cool kids now. So others follow our lead.
In several recent articles, I wrote about the likelihood of this happening. But even I am shocked at the speed and intensity of the transition.
Check out, for example, the contortions taking place at The New Yorker. Just a few months ago, Substack was a target for their jokes. Substack writers were—or so they implied—like your insufferable mother-in-law.
But all of a sudden, The New Yorker published this on May 11.
It’s absurd how quickly the vibe shifted. The New Yorker had never reviewed anything on Substack before. They only ridiculed us. Then—in a flash!—they declare Substack as the source of the Great American Novel.
That turnabout is actually more amusing than any of their cartoons.
And The New Yorker is not the only establishment vehicle that fell in love with Substack during the month of May.
In my world of music writing, Billboard is a huge power broker. But from their perspective, I don’t even exist.
At least I didn’t until May 9, 2025.
That’s when Billboard felt obliged to respond to my criticism of private equity funds.
But then guess what happened ten days later.
Yes, you guessed it. Billboard launched its own Substack on May 19. You can’t make this stuff up.
Don’t get me wrong. I think this is healthy for everybody. But these legacy outlets will find it difficult to adapt to the messy world of new media.
Consider the case of BBC History, which also joined Substack this month. As of yesterday morning, they only had 200 subscribers. That must be painful for the BBC—once the monopolistic media voice for a world-dominating empire.
But if they want to play in this new sandbox, they will need to fight for readers like the rest of us.
But the clearest sign of Substack’s ascendancy may be the number of aspiring politicians who are now on the platform.
I can’t tell you who will win the 2028 presidential election. But I’m fairly certain that the next president will be a Substacker.
Like all these others, Pete Buttigieg joined Substack in May. According to The Bulwark:
Buttigieg’s Substack already has over 380,000 followers, making him one of the most prominent Democrats now on the platform….
Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy has become a prolific Substack poster. Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett published her first Substack newsletter last Thursday….Rahm Emanuel posted for the first time just last month and the Democratic National Committee made its debut on the platform in March.
Republican hopefuls are also on board. Marco Rubio launched a Substack for the US State Department in late April. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard are also on the platform. I expect to see many other leading politicians, of all parties and persuasions, join them in the coming months.
“I think that the 2026 and 2028 elections are going to play out on Substack,” boasts Catherine Valentine, Substack’s head of politics. That’s a sure bet, as far as I can see.
The final sign of Substack’s embrace by the establishment can be measured in the number of major brands and businesses now on board.
Many of them also joined in May.
Substack is “reshaping how brands communicate,” according to Forbes.
“Substack has found success because it offers what people have been craving: community,” shares the (anonymous) founder of People, Brands And Things. “Unlike mainstream social media, it thrives on creativity and niche interests. It’s a refreshing departure from data-driven content.”
Do I really want to see McDonald's and Pepsi and Nike on Substack?
I’m not so chuffed about this, but I don’t think they will have much luck here. They know how to pay for advertising and buy endorsements, but in the free-flowing world of Substack, they will struggle for influence.
And that’s how it should be.
But I do see more change in our future. In particular, I anticipate a stage five in the evolution of Substack.
STAGE FIVE
In the next stage, the boundaries between alternative and legacy media start to blur—or even collapse.
Some counterculture Substacks will soon turn into big media businesses. Some big media businesses will start acting like bohemian outsiders. It won’t be easy to tell them apart.
I expect this to happen over the next 12-24 months.
I applaud it. The establishment will loosen up, and develop new skills. Upstart Substackers like me will also benefit. We will act less like the circus in town, and more like serious professionals.
Yes, there’s a time to put away the clown make-up.
But whether you love it or hate it, this is the future. And it’s happening quickly. And it’s happening right here.
I’ll have more to say about Stage Five in the very near future. So stay posted.
Reminds me of the Ghandi quote “first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they attack you, then you win”
I still think of you as the Mayor of Substack BTW