Has TikTok Already Peaked?

The music business is betting on short viral videos, but warning signs of market saturation are everywhere

The music business is addicted to gimmicks and short-term fixes. The latest one is called TikTok, and if this were a game of Texas hold ‘em, I would say that the major labels have gone all in on this wager.   

Here’s the bet in a nutshell: Is TikTok a passing fad or a transformative innovation in the music business? A lot of money is at stake on how this plays out, and entire careers hang in the balance.

But the cards on the table don’t look right to me. The TikTok bet looked a lot smarter a year ago. But as we approach the start of 2023, warning signs are everywhere.

If I were playing this game, I’d walk away from the table right now.